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Subject:   Exercise #141:  22 March 2000, 1849 UT.
Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 19:35:24 -0700
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22 March, 1849 UT, 2000: Exercise 141 ----run  22/03/00
Please note: these predictions are based on input that is undergoing
standardization (still under development), so they should be taken only as
suggestions. We appreciate all additional data information, comments and
feedback.
Details of the 3 models used here can be found in
http://www.expi.net/space/tools.html
(Time since last event  ~ 28 Hr)

General Description:  AR8910 produced an X1.1/2N flare at N14W57 that was
observed optically at Holloman and by GOES-10 X-rays at 1834-1848-1856 on 22
March 2000.  Sagamore Hill detected a metric Type II, starting at 1849 UT,
>ending at 1900 UT, with an estimated shock speed, Vs = 1200 km/sec.  Type
IV was also observed.  We will assume a piston-driving time, tau = 1h.
ACE/SWEPAM is detecting a high speed stream with Vsw = 600 km/sec at this
writing.  Daniel Berdichevsky reports a possible reverse shock today that
may be a remnant of the interaction between a CIR and the combined shocks
from the two flares (2103 UT and 2156 UT) on 18 March 2000 discussed in our
#139 message.  ACE/EPAM is continuing to see increasing flux levels of
protons.   No CME reports have been received at this writing.  The IMF is
predominately away at this time.

Summary Input:    #        date       start time      Vs             tau
location     Vsw
(STOA / ISPM) 141   3/22/2000  1849 UT   1200 km/s  1h  N14W57  1200 km/s
(HAF):               141    3/22/2000  1849 UT   1200 km/s  1h  N14W57

Our ensemble's prediction window is indicated as follows:

STOA: Shock will arrive at Earth: 1736 UT, 24 March 2000; Transit Time =
46h47m; Ma = 3.0.
ISPM:  Shock will arrive at Earth:  1402 UT, 25 March 2000; Transit Time =
67h12m; SSI = 0.1.
HAF:   Shock will arrive at Earth:  1900 UT, 25 March 2000; SSI = -0.5.
Bz is predicted to turn northward initially when the shock arrives.

Respectfully,
Murray Dryer, Zdenka Smith, Sun Wei, Ghee Fry, Chuck Deehr, and Syun
Akasofu.